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Consumer Goods | Processed & Packaged Goods | USA
Kellogg Drops as Cereal Maker Issues Soft 2019 Guidance

Kellogg issues soft guidance for 2019.

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The Battle Creek, Mich.-based company reported adjusted ourth-quarter earnings per share of 93 cents on revenue of $3.32 billion, a 5% increase year over year. Analysts, on average, were expecting the company to report earnings of 88 cents on revenue of $3.32 billion. On a non-adjusted basis, the loss in the quarter was 24 cents a share.

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The company said sales this year are expected to increase between 3% and 4% with adjusted operating profit expected to be about flat while adjusted per-share earnings are expected to decrease by 5% to 7%. Cash flow also is expected to be flat in 2019.

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https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stoc...yptr=yahoo

Ist Kellogg das nächste Kraft Heinz?

Sehr sehr gute Analyse der bilanziellen Situation von Kellogg im Vergleich zu Kraft Heinz

Zitat:Kellogg: The 'Un-Wind' Of Years Of Financial Engineering Portends A Debacle Worse Than Kraft Heinz

Kraft Heinz's recent debacle should terrify K shareholders; Kellogg is in much worse shape but has been able to hide behind aggressive financial engineering.

Guidance for a strong second half in FY 19 is setting shareholders up for more disappointment.

New Risk Factor confirms "un-wind" of DSO and DPO build will wreak havoc on performance.

Kellogg is not the dividend stalwart shareholders believe it to be; cash is extremely tight, and risk of a dividend cut or credit downgrade is high and rising.

Shares are trading at an unjustifiably high valuation.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246670...raft-heinz

Nochmal aufgearbeitet gibts die gesamte Analyse hier:
https://www.presciencepoint.com/wp-conte...teQ418.pdf


EDIT: Wobei es nicht schaden kann auf den Disclosure des Autors zu achten:

Zitat:Disclosure: I am/we are short K

Kellog ist ja wie seine Peergroup mit einem Wachstumsproblem konfrontiert.
Wenn das Wachstum nicht irgendwie stimuliert werden kann,
liegt die zu erwartende Rendite nur bei ca 5 % + in den kommenden 3-5 Jahren.

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PS: Der Dividend Safe Score würde mich dazu interessieren.


"Kellogg's wide assortment of large and well-known brands has served investors well for more than a century. However, all companies need to adapt to changing consumer tastes, and Kellogg has really struggled to do that over the past decade.

While management's turnaround plan sounds reasonable, and the firm's long-term growth guidance (about 7% cash flow and dividend growth per year) looks appealing at first glance, investors have reason to be skeptical that it can deliver on that plan.

At the very least, realize that Kellogg, while likely a safe income investment, is probably going to have to grow its dividend slower than in the past, in order to maintain a healthy balance sheet and fund its ongoing turnaround.

As conservative investors, our preference is to invest in companies with stronger long-term outlooks and clearer paths to profitable growth. Many parts of Kellogg's portfolio appear to remain in the crosshairs of changing consumer tastes, and management's long-term track record of adapting the business doesn't inspire much confidence."

Quelle: https://www.simplysafedividends.com/inte...erformance

@Päda

SSD score für K ist 72/100

(07.03.2019, 15:16)Thor3 schrieb: [ -> ]@Päda

SSD score für K ist 72/100

Wann war das letzte Update?

Der letzte Artikel ist - siehe Pädas link - vom 19.02.2019.

Die scores sind die aktuellesten, da konstant aktualisiert. Wann die letzte Veränderung war ... naja, dieses feature fehlt eben, daher meine Fred Feuerstein-zu-Fuß-Eingabe zuhause.

S&P Rating ist übrigens nicht so doll: BBB.
Zweiter Grad über "Junk" bzw. nicht Investmentgrade 

(07.03.2019, 15:28)Thor3 schrieb: [ -> ]Der letzte Artikel ist - siehe Pädas link - vom 19.02.2019.

Ok das ist noch wenige Tage vor dem KHC-Desaster.

Man sollte aber davon ausgehen, dass SSD die Erkenntnisse daraus durchaus auf andere Unternehmen in dem Sektor anwendet.

(07.03.2019, 15:37)Banker schrieb: [ -> ]

(07.03.2019, 15:28)Thor3 schrieb: [ -> ]Der letzte Artikel ist - siehe Pädas link - vom 19.02.2019.

Ok das ist noch wenige Tage vor dem KHC-Desaster.

Man sollte aber davon ausgehen, dass SSD die Erkenntnisse daraus durchaus auf andere Unternehmen in dem Sektor anwendet.

also der Score ist tatsächlich tagesaktuell, das habe ich nun bei ABBV ganz gut verfolgen können. Anfang der Wochen och bei über 70 aktuell bei 65

Kellogg scheint Balast abzuschmeißen. Sie verkaufen offensichtlich einen Teil ihres Fruit Snack Bereichs und könnten damit bis zu 1,5 Mrd. USD generieren.

Zitat:“We need to make strategic choices about our business and these brands have had difficulty competing for resources and investments within our portfolio,” Kellogg CEO Steve Cahillane said in a statement last year, when announcing the planned divestitures.

Ferrero and Hostess vie for Kellogg’s Keebler cookie business, in a roughly $1.5 billion deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/ferrero-...okies.html

Kellogg (K) Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates

Kellogg (K) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.01 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.95 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 6.32%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this maker of Frosted Flakes, Pop Tarts and Eggo waffles would post earnings of $0.88 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.91, delivering a surprise of 3.41%.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-k...01274.html