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RE: boersenkater´s Trading-Pausen-Thread
| 04.07.2022, 12:04 (Dieser Beitrag wurde zuletzt bearbeitet: 04.07.2022, 13:16 von boersenkater.)
Market Extra
The Dow just booked its worst first half since 1962. What history says about the path ahead.
Last Updated: July 2, 2022 at 8:43 a.m. ET
First Published: June 29, 2022 at 7:54 a.m. ET
By William Watts
S&P 500 sees biggest first-half drop since 1970, while tech wreck leaves Nasdaq with largest such decline on record
This bear has claws.
A bear market that began on the first trading day of 2022 drove down the S&P 500 for its worst first six months to a calendar year in 52 years as investors head into the second half fearing aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could tip the economy into recession.........
Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 has bounced back after past first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size, however, is small, with only five instances going back to 1932 (see table below).
[attachment=10826]
...........Indeed, an analysis by Wells Fargo Investment Institute found that recessions accompanied by a recession, on average, lasted 20 months and produced a negative 37.8% return. Bear markets outside a recession lasted 6 months on average — nearly the length of the current episode — and saw an average return of -28.9%. Taken together, the average bear market lasted an average of 16 month and produced a -35.1% return.............
As the table below shows, the second-half performance for the blue-chip gauge after first-half declines of 10% or more are variable. The most recent incident, in 2008 during the worst of the financial crisis, saw the Dow drop another 22.68% in the second half of the year.
[attachment=10827]
.......In the 15 instances, the Dow rallied in the second half two-thirds of the time, producing an average second-half rise of 4.45% and a median gain just shy of 7%..........
...........There were only two instances — 2002 and 1973 — and both saw the Nasdaq keep sliding over the remainder of the year, falling around 8.7% over the second half in both instances.........
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-...1656503671
OK. Oberflächlich betrachtet -> Wenn die erste Hälfte so schlecht lief wie in den besagten Jahren (oder aktuell),
dann lief die zweite Hälfte des Jahres überwiegend positiv. Was auffällt - das relativ wenige Jahre aufgeführt werden.
Jahre in denen es erst in der zweiten Hälfte schlecht lief oder es erst am Ende des Jahres so schlecht aussah sind
dementsprechend nicht drin. Genauso fehlt auch die Betrachtung wie die Jahre davor und danach liefen.
Oder auch wie das Jahr selbst dann letztendlich abgeschlossen hat.
Wir erinnern uns.....
[attachment=10828]
Bildquelle: Mythos Verluste aussitzen
https://broker-test.de/finanzwissen/fond...usteffekt/
The Dow just booked its worst first half since 1962. What history says about the path ahead.
Last Updated: July 2, 2022 at 8:43 a.m. ET
First Published: June 29, 2022 at 7:54 a.m. ET
By William Watts
S&P 500 sees biggest first-half drop since 1970, while tech wreck leaves Nasdaq with largest such decline on record
This bear has claws.
A bear market that began on the first trading day of 2022 drove down the S&P 500 for its worst first six months to a calendar year in 52 years as investors head into the second half fearing aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could tip the economy into recession.........
Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 has bounced back after past first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size, however, is small, with only five instances going back to 1932 (see table below).
[attachment=10826]
...........Indeed, an analysis by Wells Fargo Investment Institute found that recessions accompanied by a recession, on average, lasted 20 months and produced a negative 37.8% return. Bear markets outside a recession lasted 6 months on average — nearly the length of the current episode — and saw an average return of -28.9%. Taken together, the average bear market lasted an average of 16 month and produced a -35.1% return.............
As the table below shows, the second-half performance for the blue-chip gauge after first-half declines of 10% or more are variable. The most recent incident, in 2008 during the worst of the financial crisis, saw the Dow drop another 22.68% in the second half of the year.
[attachment=10827]
.......In the 15 instances, the Dow rallied in the second half two-thirds of the time, producing an average second-half rise of 4.45% and a median gain just shy of 7%..........
...........There were only two instances — 2002 and 1973 — and both saw the Nasdaq keep sliding over the remainder of the year, falling around 8.7% over the second half in both instances.........
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-...1656503671
OK. Oberflächlich betrachtet -> Wenn die erste Hälfte so schlecht lief wie in den besagten Jahren (oder aktuell),
dann lief die zweite Hälfte des Jahres überwiegend positiv. Was auffällt - das relativ wenige Jahre aufgeführt werden.
Jahre in denen es erst in der zweiten Hälfte schlecht lief oder es erst am Ende des Jahres so schlecht aussah sind
dementsprechend nicht drin. Genauso fehlt auch die Betrachtung wie die Jahre davor und danach liefen.
Oder auch wie das Jahr selbst dann letztendlich abgeschlossen hat.
Wir erinnern uns.....
[attachment=10828]
Bildquelle: Mythos Verluste aussitzen
https://broker-test.de/finanzwissen/fond...usteffekt/
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