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Interessante Sichtweise....
Is everything going back to February 2020?
Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
Sat, July 9, 2022 at 1:00 PM
I was talking to a high-profile Wall Street strategist the other day who told me she and her husband were house-hunting in the Hamptons.
They saw a place they liked, but the asking price was too high.
“It was as if the downturn in the stock market hadn’t happened,” the strategist related. “I told the broker: ‘I’m paying what this house was worth back in February 2020, because that’s what it’s worth now.'”
A provocative take, and one worth considering.
The strategist is suggesting that a surge in the price of everything from stocks to crypto to real estate was a one-off that came and is now gone. So, too, are the stimulus payments sent to millions of Americans that helped fuel some of this enthusiasm.
Therefore, the argument goes, prices should — and will — revert back to pre-COVID norms.
Let's follow the strategist’s lead, then, and use February 2020 as a benchmark. Or in the case of stocks, February 19, 2020, when the S&P 500 closed at a pre-pandemic high of 3,386.
As the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic became clear, investors sold stocks, and by March 23, 2020, the S&P fell to 2,237, a drop of more than 33% in just over a month.
Since then the market has been on a ride wild enough for Mr. Toad.
Starting from the March 2020 low, the S&P 500 more than doubled to its most recent record close of 4,796 on January 3, 2022. Fueled by $5 trillion in stimulus funding — $1.8 trillion of which went directly to individuals and families — as well as accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and near-zero interest rates, markets entered a speculative phase that witnessed the rise of meme stocks, SPACs, crypto and NFTs.
“We believe what's gone on in the market in the first six months of this year, and what will go on for maybe another year to year and a half, is bear market punishment for the ridiculous financial euphoria,” says Bill Smead, founder and chairman of Smead Capital Management.............................................................
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-b...21299.html
Is everything going back to February 2020?
Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
Sat, July 9, 2022 at 1:00 PM
I was talking to a high-profile Wall Street strategist the other day who told me she and her husband were house-hunting in the Hamptons.
They saw a place they liked, but the asking price was too high.
“It was as if the downturn in the stock market hadn’t happened,” the strategist related. “I told the broker: ‘I’m paying what this house was worth back in February 2020, because that’s what it’s worth now.'”
A provocative take, and one worth considering.
The strategist is suggesting that a surge in the price of everything from stocks to crypto to real estate was a one-off that came and is now gone. So, too, are the stimulus payments sent to millions of Americans that helped fuel some of this enthusiasm.
Therefore, the argument goes, prices should — and will — revert back to pre-COVID norms.
Let's follow the strategist’s lead, then, and use February 2020 as a benchmark. Or in the case of stocks, February 19, 2020, when the S&P 500 closed at a pre-pandemic high of 3,386.
As the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic became clear, investors sold stocks, and by March 23, 2020, the S&P fell to 2,237, a drop of more than 33% in just over a month.
Since then the market has been on a ride wild enough for Mr. Toad.
Starting from the March 2020 low, the S&P 500 more than doubled to its most recent record close of 4,796 on January 3, 2022. Fueled by $5 trillion in stimulus funding — $1.8 trillion of which went directly to individuals and families — as well as accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve and near-zero interest rates, markets entered a speculative phase that witnessed the rise of meme stocks, SPACs, crypto and NFTs.
“We believe what's gone on in the market in the first six months of this year, and what will go on for maybe another year to year and a half, is bear market punishment for the ridiculous financial euphoria,” says Bill Smead, founder and chairman of Smead Capital Management.............................................................
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-b...21299.html
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