(12.12.2019, 17:19)bloom schrieb: Hierzu ein kleiner Auszug aus meinem Buch. Ich habe leider im Moment die Zeit nicht, das zurück zuübersetzen, werde es jedoch gerne machen, wenn einer von euch das gerne haben möchte.
1.8 A revealing review.
In the 60s to 70s, an economic bubble formed. It concerned the 50 most substantial stock market values of the DOW. The Morgan Guarantee Trust Bank compiled these values, and these values were given the name Nifty Fifty. They were the fastest-growing companies with the highest quality standards of the time.
Investors were advised to invest only in these companies because it looked like in the future, the U.S. would dominate the global economy. A then prominent school (Equity School) explained:
‘During the 1960s, post the election of a young, charismatic president and the civil rights movement, there was a popular belief that the U.S. industry would dominate the global economy. The Nifty Fifty embodied that new sense of economic power. One of the most important reasons for the popularity of these companies was that they had strong business franchises, which would earn them high returns on capital for the foreseeable future. Also, they were displaying an above-average growth track record. Even well-known investors like T. Rowe Price and Phillip Fisher had advocated investments in ’growth’ companies to generate above-average long-term returns.’
Some of these companies were later very successful, for example, Walmart, 3M, PepsiCo, Texas Instruments, Merck, and of course, Procter & Gamble. In USA Today magazine, these 50 stocks have been traded as one-decision stocks, meaning they are valuers you buy once and never sell again. Many investors did just that and were willing to pay any price for these stocks.
By 1972, when the S&P 500’s P/E ratio was a vibrant 19, the Nifty Fifty’s average P/E was a staggering 42, according to USA Today. The party ended when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 45% in 1973–74; some Nifty Fifty stocks such as Polaroid experienced declines above 90% as their valuation multiples collapsed.
If you had bought into the Nifty Fifty mania at the worst possible time in December 1972, you would have bought McDonald’s shares at a P/E ratio of 86. Then, you could have observed that, in 1974, the share price fell from December 1972 until October 1994 by a staggering 72%.
Figure 6 shows investors who bought at the peak in 1972 would have waited nearly eight years until July 28, 1980, to return to breakeven while collecting their dividends. Yet those who had the patience to stick with McDonald’s were handsomely rewarded in the end.
Some of the companies were doing worse than McDonald’s overtime. Kmart’s business is still running poorly today. And some companies went bankrupt, as the examples of Eastman-Kodak and Polaroid show. Some of these fifty, are no longer even known to the general public, such as Simply Pattern, a producer of sewing machines. But yet, if you had bought all those stocks at the time, say: $100,000, $2,000 for each value, McDonald’s Altie would have dropped 72% in the process to date, and the investment capital would have been nominal: $100,000 reduced to a meager $6,000, yet each year dividends would have appeared in your bank account. Today, in 2019, the report would have a total value of $30,000,000 and would earn a profit of well over $1,000,000 in dividends every year. However, you had to prove your perseverance.
However, the example in Figure 7 shows that patience is essential, and it is crucial to recognize which companies will be successful in the long-term. The sewing machines and analog films could not succeed in the long run, which was predictable.
Ich hatte es schon im Buch gelesen.
1929 hätte man bis 1954 warten müssen!
Inhaltlich ist das Buch ok. Vor allem für junge Leute. Eigentlich ein Muss!
Ich halte dieses Vorgehen aber für unbedarfte Naturen, im fortgesetzten Alter ,für gefährlich!
Es sei denn, man kann mit futteres und long puts umgehen und kennt die ganze Dimension des Risikos.
