British Petroleum

Der Hinweis, daß Shell gekürzt hatte, heisst aber doch nicht, dass 'alle' kürzen, oder?

Das ist ein Indiz ohne Verpflichtung, mehr nicht.
Shell lag immer sehr viel einer stabilen Dividende und das sagt schon sehr viel aus wenn die kürzen (müssen).

Wenn die Ersten kürzen fällt es den Folgenden dann leichter. Denn dann ist die "Akzeptanz" vom Markt schon da und wird risikotechnisch bei den anderen der Branche eingepreist.
Shell hat die Kürzung von BP sozusagen mental vorbereitet und deswegen ist der BP Kurs auch nicht so stark (=gar nicht!) zusammengesackt. Hätte erst BP und dann Shell gekürzt wäre der BP Kurs mit Bekanntgabe der Kürzung genauso gecrasht wie bei Shell vorher.

Ich könnte mir vorstellen das alle Unternehmen dieser Branche kürzen. Im Prinzip ist das aber schon alles eingepreist, von daher wäre es jetzt sowieso schon zu spät zu verkaufen.

Wurde gerade freundlich darauf hingewiesen, dass ich mich hätte nochmal melden können. Hatte vergessen, mich zu bedanken, sorry.

Nachgekauft hab' ich immer noch nicht. Der 'Markt' sah die Lage wohl nochmals anders, da der Kurs seit der Kürzung die 3,1€ nicht  mehr unterschritten hat.

Der Hinweis, daß Shell gekürzt hatte, heisst aber doch nicht, dass 'alle' kürzen, oder? Bei Chevron und BHP (meine anderen Öler) sieht's (noch) nicht so aus.

Hey Tarkus! Erstmal aufrichtig Daumen Hoch für Dich, dass Du freundlich nicht in Anführungszeichen oder kursiv gesetzt hast!    

Nun, ich würde mich mal Vahana anschließen. RDS (Shell) war der erste wirklich signifikante Dominostein. Ich hatte jahrelang XOM. Mein mantra war stets last man standing - XOM wird der letzte Überlebende sein hinsichtlich Dividenden. Ich hatte XOM mit Kapitalverlust verkauft, weil ich diese Betrachtung nicht mehr so sehe. Tatsächlich erscheint aktuell eher und überraschenderweise Chevron last man standing zu werden.

Falls es Dich und Dein Investment interessiert, hier mal der aktuelle SimplySafeDividends score und Einschätzung:

ACHTUNG: DAS IST off-topic BP ! 

Dividendensicherheit Chevron: 65/100  

Artikel 21. Juli

On July 20, Chevron agreed to acquire independent oil and gas producer Noble Energy for $5 billion in an all-stock deal. Chevron will also assume Noble's debt of about $8 billion.

We don't expect this deal to materially affect Chevron's dividend profile and are maintaining the firm's Safe Dividend Safety Score.

The downturn in energy markets seemed likely to lead to consolidation as many smaller shale companies lacked affordable access to capital and needed higher oil and gas prices to service their debt loads.

Chevron's acquisition of Noble marks the first major deal since the pandemic began earlier this year.

Noble adds low-cost reserves and resources to Chevron's portfolio, including assets in the Permian basin which are adjacent to Chevron's existing footprint.

Noble also has a complementary presence in the DJ basin and helps diversify Chevron's business by adding substantial natural gas assets in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Overall, we estimate Noble would have increased Chevron's 2019 production by about 12% while boosting its proved reserves by 18%.

Acquiring these assets during a downturn adds to Chevron's resource base cost efficiently and without requiring exploration risk.

For example, Noble had total proved reserves of about 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2019. These are economically viable resources that the company reasonably expected to extract in the future.

Based on the transaction's $13 billion value, Chevron is acquiring each of these barrels for only around $6, well below the current price of oil (near $40).

Given the complementary nature of many of Noble's key assets and various business redundancies, Chevron expects to generate annual cost synergies of $300 million before tax.

That alone would be more than enough to offset the estimated $250 million of incremental dividends Chevron will need to pay after issuing shares to close the deal.

Management also expects the deal to increase Chevron's free cash flow per share and earnings per share one year after close (likely in the fourth quarter of 2020), even at a Brent oil price of $40 per barrel.

Noble was already achieving high-margin production growth at oil prices near $45 per barrel and was expected to have a neutral free cash flow profile in 2020-21, per ratings firm Fitch.

Most importantly, acquiring Noble does not impair Chevron's balance sheet strength.

After taking on Noble's $8 billion debt load, we estimate Chevron's net debt to capital ratio will increase from 14% to about 18%.

For perspective, Chevron's peers have ratios closer to 20% to 30%.

Chevron earlier this year also estimated that its gearing would remain below 25% even if Brent oil averaged $30 per barrel in 2020 and 2021 and money was borrowed to maintain the current dividend.

Buying Noble will push that figure a little higher, but management has said previously that Chevron planned to move its gearing into the 20% to 25% range over time, which "is not an uncomfortable level to be at."

Simply put, Chevron continues to have the ability to endure a couple years of tough pricing without threatening its dividend, even after acquiring Noble.

Ultimately, the concluding comments we made in our June note remain true:

Like the other oil majors, Chevron eventually needs higher oil prices to sustain its capital spending program and dividend. No business can increase leverage forever, especially for the sake of maintaining a dividend.

Oil prices above $60 per barrel are required by most major oil-producing nations to balance their budgets, but how long it takes for fundamentals to normalize is anyone's guess.

Supply side dynamics are extremely complex thanks to disruption caused by U.S. shale players, and demand recovery is still in the early days as the pandemic's impact lingers.

For the dividend's sake, it's important that conditions in the oil market improve meaningfully by the end of next year. 

Should a price recovery fail to occur or Chevron's balance sheet runway materially shorten for any reason, we would consider downgrading its Dividend Safety Score.

For now, income investors can rest a little easier knowing that Chevron is arguably the best positioned oil major to protect its dividend and has made that its first priority.

Artikel 2. Juni

The price of oil has started to rebound off its April lows with lockdowns being lifted and supply falling. But at today's price near $39 per barrel, the oil majors will continue burning through cash.

With a breakeven price near $50 per barrel, Chevron is no exception.

Facing these realities, Shell on April 30 announced its first dividend cut since World War II. Investors are worried other oil majors may soon follow suit.

Chevron is the only oil major with a Safe Dividend Safety Score, driven by the firm's strong balance sheet.

The dividend aristocrat has not cut its dividend since 1912, and even in the current oil price environment, we continue to believe a dividend cut is unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Chevron backed up this view in May following its first-quarter earnings report and annual shareholders meeting.

Knowing dividend safety would be a hot topic, management shared the results of a cash flow stress test Chevron conducted.

The test assumed Brent oil averaged $30 per barrel in 2020 and 2021 and the firm's current dividend was maintained.

While cash flow from operations (CFFO) would cover the dividend in this environment, debt and asset sales would be required to cover the company's capital spending.

The chart on the left shows Chevron's estimated sources and uses of cash under its two-year stress test.
Source: Chevron Investor Presentation
Chevron maintained low leverage prior to the pandemic. As a result, management is willing and able to take on more debt to cover its cash flow deficit and protect the dividend.

At the end of the first quarter, Chevron's net debt to capital ratio was 14%. For perspective, the firm's peers have ratios closer to 20% to 30%.

Chevron estimates that its net debt to capital ratio would remain under 25% even after the incremental borrowing required in its two-year stress test.

Management said "that is not an uncomfortable level to be at" and noted that over time the firm had planned to move its gearing into the 20% to 25% range anyway.

After all, only a few years ago Chevron's net debt to capital ratio was above 25%. The company has demonstrated it can manage leverage in this range, should the price of oil remain lower for longer.

Chevron's financial assessment seems reasonable. In March, we estimated that Chevron could potentially maintain its dividend for two years or longer before the firm's net debt to capital ratio would reach an uncomfortable level.

In addition to its balance sheet capacity, Chevron has strong liquidity. The company holds $8.5 billion of cash and has over $20 billion of available borrowing capacity through its credit facilities. (For context, the dividend costs $9.6 billion.)

The company maintains an AA credit rating from Standard & Poor's as well, helping it continue accessing debt markets on reasonable terms. With less than $5 billion of debt maturing through 2021, refinancing risk is low, too.

And unlike some of its peers, Chevron has also been very vocal about prioritizing its dividend, which management said is "vital" to the firm's shareholders:

"We've got a long-standing financial framework that has the dividend as our #1 financial priority...

"On our first quarter earnings call about a month ago, we laid out a stress test, where we showed the financial state of the company and our balance sheet if we have 2 years of $30 Brent crude pricing, continue to invest in our business, sustain the dividend and it shows that we still exit 2021 with a very strong balance sheet and good financial health [including a net debt to capital ratio below 25%]. So that was an attempt to lay out for investors the the safety of our dividend and the actions we're taking to protect it."

– Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth, Chevron's Annual Shareholders Meeting

Overall, we expect to maintain Chevron's Safe Dividend Safety Score due to the firm's solid balance sheet.

This positions the company to endure a couple of years of really tough pricing without threatening its dividend, as long as management remains comfortable increasing leverage to a reasonable level.

But like the other oil majors, Chevron eventually needs higher oil prices to sustain its capital spending program and dividend. No business can increase leverage forever, especially for the sake of maintaining a dividend.

Oil prices above $60 per barrel are required by most major oil-producing nations to balance their budgets, but how long it takes for fundamentals to normalize is anyone's guess.

Supply side dynamics are extremely complex thanks to disruption caused by U.S. shale players, and demand recovery is still in the early days as the pandemic's impact lingers.

For the dividend's sake, it's important that conditions in the oil market improve meaningfully by the end of next year. 

Should a price recovery fail to occur or Chevron's balance sheet runway materially shorten for any reason, we would consider downgrading its Dividend Safety Score.

For now, income investors can rest a little easier knowing that Chevron is arguably the best positioned oil major to protect its dividend and has made that its first priority.

DER mit Abstand IMHO wegweisendste Artikel bezüglich CVXs Dividende hier: Das Management hat sich nicht nur zur Dividende explizit geäußert (im Gegensatz zu den anderen oil majors) sondern auch den Cash Flow Härtseszenarien durchspielen lassen!


24. März

Chevron (CVX) this morning announced a series of actions to preserve capital in response to the unprecedented decline in oil prices. As part of the plan, management pledged to protect the dividend:

“Chevron’s financial priorities remain unchanged. Our focus is on protecting the dividend, prioritizing capital that drives long-term value, and supporting the balance sheet.” – Chevron CFO Pierre Breber

As we discussed earlier this month, Chevron has a very strong balance sheet and is one of the very few companies in the energy sector to earn a Safe Dividend Safety Score.

Here are the levers Chevron is pulling to preserve cash in this environment: 

• Reducing 2020 capital spending plan by $4 billion, or 20%
  
  
• Reducing Permian production guidance by 20%
  
  
• Suspending share repurchases
  
  
• Continuing plan to remove reduce run-rate costs by $1 billion
  

Excluding 2020 asset sales and price related contractual effects, Chevron expects 2020 production to be roughly flat relative to 2019 as it goes into maintenance mode.

“The flexibility of our capital program allows us to respond to these unexpected market conditions by deferring short-cycle investments and pacing projects not yet under construction. At the same time, we are focused on completing projects already under construction that will start-up in future years while preserving our capability to increase short-cycle activity in the Permian and other areas when prices recover.” – Jay Johnson, Executive Vice President of Upstream

Chevron will still be borrowing to pay its dividend, and our previous estimate remains unchanged: thanks to its low leverage, the company appears to have at least one to two years' worth of balance sheet capacity to cover its cash flow deficit in this environment.

Management is willing to use some of Chevron's financial flexibility to keep income investors content until oil prices hopefully move higher. The company seems to share oil major Total's perspective that this pricing environment is unsustainable due to transitory factors at work, making them more willing to hold onto the dividend.

Total said recently that global oil demand is likely to fall by 6 million barrels per day (or about 6%) in April due to the spread of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and its partners are increasing production by 3-4 million barrels per day.

Combined, that's an extra 10 million barrels per day on what Total describes as a "zero-demand" market. For context, world oil demand sat near 100 million barrels per day last year. That's why oil prices have collapsed to under $30 per barrel.

We plan to maintain our Safe rating on Chevron and will continue monitoring the firm's balance sheet runway potential. However, all of the oil majors will eventually need higher commodity prices to cover their production spending and dividends with free cash flow instead of debt.

BP geht jedenfalls weiter freudig rauf...

... und seit meinem letzten Post stetig runter. Heute habe ich nachgekauft.

Jetzt bitte alle fleissig nachtanken. In D gerne bei Aral.

Öl fällt... du kaufst...
Gibt es da außer dem Spaß an hohen ausgewiesenen DIV-Renditen weitere Gründe?

SG

Zufällig ging das Roh-Öl heute eigentlich rauf. WTI, Brent ca. +2,5%. Aber davon eine 'Rohstoff-Strategie' ableiten zu wollen, hatte - zumindest bei mir - bisher nie funktioniert. Zu chaotisch, zu 'politisch'.

BP ging ja trotzdem runter. Den 'Umkehrpunkt' treffe ich eh nicht, aber ich vermute, der ist bald da, und dann bin ich 'drin'. Geld war gerade da, und langfristig wird das Öl wieder fliessen, bin ich überzeugt.

Und: ja, die Dividendenrendite ist nicht schlecht. Selbst wenn nochmal 50% gekürzt würde (was ich nicht hoffe) wären es immer noch 3%.

Scheinbar ist es jetzt passiert.

Ich gebe zu, ich hatte eine ordentliche 'Nachkaufdissonanz' im Oktober, da der Kurs immer weiter noch runterging. Hatte 'jeder' so prophezeit. Jetzt ging es schlagartig hoch. Das hatte niemand prophezeit (zumindest habe ich das nicht mitbekommen). Und ich kenne mich insoweit, dass ich aktuell nicht kaufen würde, wenn der Kurs vor zwei Tagen um mehr als 10% niedriger lag. Ich 'musste' beim Fallen kaufen. 'Psychologie' nennt man das wohl, soviel zur Erklärung.
Wie es weitergeht, weiss ich natürlich nicht. Die Anzahl der gehaltenen Aktien hat sich nicht verändert, die Dividenden zum Glück auch nicht weiter ...

Ich kenne das auch, kannst nicht alles mitbekommen und der ganze Ölmarkt interessiert mich jetzt nicht so stark, aber es gab in den letzten Wochen genug Artikel mit dem Tenor, warum der Markt bald wieder dreht, überwiegend mit konjunkturellen Hintergründen, jedoch auch in Bezug auf covid19.

Wenn du weißt, was du willst, nämlich jetzt nicht kaufen, prima.

BP verdient im 4. Quartal weniger als erwartet

Das Nettoergebnis erreichte 1,36 Milliarden US-Dollar, wie der britische Konzern mitteilte. Im Vorjahr hatte die BP plc noch einen Verlust über 450 Millionen Dollar verzeichnet. Der bereinigte Gewinn nach Wiederbeschaffungskosten erreichte in den drei Monaten per Ende Dezember 115 Millionen Dollar.

...

Als Quartalsdividende zahlt BP den weiteren Angaben zufolge 5,25 Cent je Aktie

...

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktie...et-9761787

Mineralölkonzern BP wollen im Rahmen einer 50:50-Partnerschaft gemeinsam Offshore-Windparks vor den Küsten Großbritanniens entwickeln. Bei einer Auktion der britischen Krone haben die beiden Partner die Zuschläge für die Gebiete in der Irischen See erhalten


https://news.guidants.com/#!Artikel?id=9184844


https://www.boerse.de/aktien/BP-Aktie/GB0007980591