TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN ... und eventuell mögen die Moderatoren den thread etwas umbenennen (RTX) oder in einen neuen thread dies verschieben? 
S&P hat am 03. April einen sehr, sehr ausführlichen Bericht zu RAYTHEON TECH. (RTX) verfaßt - inkl. dem neuen Rating A-.
(Ich kopiere das mal raus, weil man sich grundsätzlich erstmal registrieren muss, was nicht jeder user hier machen will - fette highlights von mir.)
Rating Action Rationale
The upgrade reflects improved credit metrics following the transactions. RTX will use proceeds of distributions from Otis and Carrier to pay down about $17 billion of legacy UTC debt. The all-stock merger with the relatively lowly leveraged Raytheon will further improve credit metrics. We expect pro forma funds from operations (FFO) to debt (assuming the transaction occurred at the beginning of 2020) to increase to 30%-35% in 2020 from 23% for UTC in 2019. We also believe credit metrics will improve modestly over the next few years. But this could be constrained by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the company's commercial aerospace business, further delays to the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX, or if management adopts a more aggressive financial policy than we forecast.
RTX will be the world's third-largest aerospace and defense (A&D) companies, with a wide array of products and services. Based on 2019 pro forma revenues of about $75 billion, the company will trail only Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, be the largest tier one commercial aerospace supplier, and the second-largest U.S. defense contractor behind Lockheed Martin Corp.
The company provides products for commercial and military aircraft, including engines, avionics, and interiors. The other defense operations will also be well diversified, providing many defense electronics, missiles, and missile defense systems. Although end-market diversity will decline with the loss of the Carrier and Otis businesses, the company will have a good balance of commercial aerospace (45% of sales) and military (55%) business. Geographic diversity will also be well balanced with 52% of sales to the U.S. and 48% to international customers.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global air travel will likely affect the company's commercial aftermarket sales. The significant decline in air travel related to the pandemic will likely reduce demand for aftermarket parts and services for its Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace units, reducing earnings and cash flow. Sales of engines and parts for new aircraft could also be affected if airlines and lessors defer or cancel a significant number of orders, causing Boeing and Airbus to reduce production. Demand for military products is unlikely to be materially affected. The company's operations could also be disrupted by government restrictions or employee illness. RTX is taking actions to try to reduce costs, including freezing hiring and reducing procurement. We expect EBITDA margins of 16%-18% in 2020 and approaching 20% in 2021, as the impact of the coronavirus lessens.
Earnings and cash flow could also be lower if the return of the 737 MAX to service is delayed. RTX has stated it expects $350 million-$375 million lower profits due to the halt in 737 MAX production. This could increase if production and deliveries are delayed beyond our current expectations of July 2020 or if Boeing delivers fewer aircraft due to the coronavirus. This would primarily affect Collins, as Pratt & Whitney does not provide engines for the 737 MAX.
Management has committed to returning $18 billion-$20 billion to shareholders in the three years after the merger. The new board of directors will establish dividends and share repurchase levels, but we expect share repurchases to be relatively modest in 2020 due to the uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus and the return of the 737 MAX to service. Free cash flow is likely to increase to $7 billion-$8 billion in 2021, and we expect annual shareholder returns could modestly exceed this. Credit measures should still improve over the forecast period on increasing earnings.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects that credit measures will improve following the recent transactions due to the lower debt. Although we believe credit measures are likely to improve further, this could be limited by the impact of the coronavirus on commercial aftermarket and aircraft manufacturer sales, further delays to the certification of the 737 MAX, or a more aggressive financial policy. We expect pro forma FFO to debt of 30%-35% in 2020, improving to 35%-40% in 2021.
Downside scenario
We could lower the rating in the next 12-24 months if FFO to debt declines below 30% for a sustained period. This could be caused by integration problems, greater impact on earnings and cash flow from the coronavirus than we expect, or further delay in the restart of production or certification of the 737 MAX or lower-than-expected deliveries. It could also be caused by the company adopting a more aggressive financial policy than we assume in our forecast.
Upside scenario
Although unlikely in the next 12-24 months, we could raise the rating if FFO to debt increases above 45% and management commits to keeping it at this level with likely shareholder returns, or if profitability is less volatile than we expect. This could occur if the integration goes smoothly, the impact of the coronavirus on earnings and cash flow is more modest than we expect, and the 737 MAX does not encounter further delays and deliveries exceed our forecast. It would also require management to maintain a less aggressive financial policy.
Our Base-Case Scenario
We expect RTX to maintain strong liquidity following the recent divestitures and merger, supported by ample cash balances, revolver availability, and solid internal cash generation. We believe sources will be more than 1.8x uses over the next 12-24 months, and that sources would exceed uses even if EBITDA declined 30%. However, we do not expect the company to maintain such excess liquidity with likely share repurchases that are not included in our analysis due to their discretionary nature.
Principal liquidity sources:
https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/w...d/11421868
________________
disclosure: 133 RTX Aktien im Depot zu $75 - Anteil 5,3% des investierten Kapitals
S&P hat am 03. April einen sehr, sehr ausführlichen Bericht zu RAYTHEON TECH. (RTX) verfaßt - inkl. dem neuen Rating A-.
(Ich kopiere das mal raus, weil man sich grundsätzlich erstmal registrieren muss, was nicht jeder user hier machen will - fette highlights von mir.)
Rating Action Rationale
The upgrade reflects improved credit metrics following the transactions. RTX will use proceeds of distributions from Otis and Carrier to pay down about $17 billion of legacy UTC debt. The all-stock merger with the relatively lowly leveraged Raytheon will further improve credit metrics. We expect pro forma funds from operations (FFO) to debt (assuming the transaction occurred at the beginning of 2020) to increase to 30%-35% in 2020 from 23% for UTC in 2019. We also believe credit metrics will improve modestly over the next few years. But this could be constrained by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the company's commercial aerospace business, further delays to the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX, or if management adopts a more aggressive financial policy than we forecast.
RTX will be the world's third-largest aerospace and defense (A&D) companies, with a wide array of products and services. Based on 2019 pro forma revenues of about $75 billion, the company will trail only Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, be the largest tier one commercial aerospace supplier, and the second-largest U.S. defense contractor behind Lockheed Martin Corp.
The company provides products for commercial and military aircraft, including engines, avionics, and interiors. The other defense operations will also be well diversified, providing many defense electronics, missiles, and missile defense systems. Although end-market diversity will decline with the loss of the Carrier and Otis businesses, the company will have a good balance of commercial aerospace (45% of sales) and military (55%) business. Geographic diversity will also be well balanced with 52% of sales to the U.S. and 48% to international customers.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global air travel will likely affect the company's commercial aftermarket sales. The significant decline in air travel related to the pandemic will likely reduce demand for aftermarket parts and services for its Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace units, reducing earnings and cash flow. Sales of engines and parts for new aircraft could also be affected if airlines and lessors defer or cancel a significant number of orders, causing Boeing and Airbus to reduce production. Demand for military products is unlikely to be materially affected. The company's operations could also be disrupted by government restrictions or employee illness. RTX is taking actions to try to reduce costs, including freezing hiring and reducing procurement. We expect EBITDA margins of 16%-18% in 2020 and approaching 20% in 2021, as the impact of the coronavirus lessens.
Earnings and cash flow could also be lower if the return of the 737 MAX to service is delayed. RTX has stated it expects $350 million-$375 million lower profits due to the halt in 737 MAX production. This could increase if production and deliveries are delayed beyond our current expectations of July 2020 or if Boeing delivers fewer aircraft due to the coronavirus. This would primarily affect Collins, as Pratt & Whitney does not provide engines for the 737 MAX.
Management has committed to returning $18 billion-$20 billion to shareholders in the three years after the merger. The new board of directors will establish dividends and share repurchase levels, but we expect share repurchases to be relatively modest in 2020 due to the uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus and the return of the 737 MAX to service. Free cash flow is likely to increase to $7 billion-$8 billion in 2021, and we expect annual shareholder returns could modestly exceed this. Credit measures should still improve over the forecast period on increasing earnings.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects that credit measures will improve following the recent transactions due to the lower debt. Although we believe credit measures are likely to improve further, this could be limited by the impact of the coronavirus on commercial aftermarket and aircraft manufacturer sales, further delays to the certification of the 737 MAX, or a more aggressive financial policy. We expect pro forma FFO to debt of 30%-35% in 2020, improving to 35%-40% in 2021.
Downside scenario
We could lower the rating in the next 12-24 months if FFO to debt declines below 30% for a sustained period. This could be caused by integration problems, greater impact on earnings and cash flow from the coronavirus than we expect, or further delay in the restart of production or certification of the 737 MAX or lower-than-expected deliveries. It could also be caused by the company adopting a more aggressive financial policy than we assume in our forecast.
Upside scenario
Although unlikely in the next 12-24 months, we could raise the rating if FFO to debt increases above 45% and management commits to keeping it at this level with likely shareholder returns, or if profitability is less volatile than we expect. This could occur if the integration goes smoothly, the impact of the coronavirus on earnings and cash flow is more modest than we expect, and the 737 MAX does not encounter further delays and deliveries exceed our forecast. It would also require management to maintain a less aggressive financial policy.
Our Base-Case Scenario
- Although defense budget growth in the U.S. is leveling off, total spending remains sizable.
- The commercial aerospace market will be weak for at least the next year due to the coronavirus, then could return to long-term growth trends.
- Assuming the transaction occurred at the beginning of 2020, it includes the paydown of $17 billion of UTC debt.
- Revenues decline 1%-3% compared to pro forma 2019 due to the impacts of the coronavirus and divestitures required for regulatory approval of the merger. Solid organic growth is 7%-9% a year thereafter from good defense demand and a recovery in the commercial aerospace markets.
- EBITDA margins would be 16%-18% in 2020, then improve to 18%-20% as the coronavirus impact subsides and the company benefits from modest cost synergies.
- Capital expenditures (capex) of $2.5 billion-$3 billion annually.
- Shareholder returns total $20 billion over the forecast period. Dividends start at about $3 billion and increase to $3.5 billion by 2022. Share repurchases are only $1 billion in 2020 due to uncertainty related to the coronavirus and increase to $5 billion per year.
- Acquisition spending is $500 million per year starting in 2021.
- Future debt maturities are refinanced.
- Pro forma FFO to debt of 30%-35% in 2020, improving to 35%-40% in 2021.
- Pro forma debt to EBITDA around 2.5x in 2020, declining to 2x-2.5x in 2021.
- Pro forma free operating cash flow to debt around 15% in 2020, increasing to 20%-25% in 2021.
We expect RTX to maintain strong liquidity following the recent divestitures and merger, supported by ample cash balances, revolver availability, and solid internal cash generation. We believe sources will be more than 1.8x uses over the next 12-24 months, and that sources would exceed uses even if EBITDA declined 30%. However, we do not expect the company to maintain such excess liquidity with likely share repurchases that are not included in our analysis due to their discretionary nature.
Principal liquidity sources:
- Approximately $7.5 billion cash at closing.
- Undrawn $5 billion revolver.
- Proceeds from divestitures required to obtain regulatory approval for the merger.
- Cash FFO of $9 billion-$10 billion in the next 12 months and increasing to about $12 billion in the subsequent 12 months.
- Capex of about $2.5 billion-$3 billion annually.
- Working capital use of $2 billion-$3 billion per year.
- Estimated dividend of approximately $3 billion over the next 12 months.
- Share repurchases of $1 billion per year.
- Long-term debt maturities of $1.8 billion for the rest of 2020 and about $500 million in 2021.
- Approximately $1 billion of short-term debt maturities.
https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/w...d/11421868
________________
disclosure: 133 RTX Aktien im Depot zu $75 - Anteil 5,3% des investierten Kapitals
offline
![[Bild: RTXc1dl0822.png]](https://finviz.com/publish/050820/RTXc1dl0822.png)